South Asia Development Forum

This study identifies the causes of potential changes to the glacier and snow dynamics in the Himalaya, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, present scenarios of possible glacier and snow changes under different climate change and black carbon scenarios, and determine implications for water resources.

Converging technologies promise a new era of delivering education, health, and social services to millions of digitally excluded. Hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and beset with low human development outcomes, how can South Asia bring these benefits to vulnerable groups, adapt technologies, and build trust and protection against risks?

This volume presents a fresh perspective on how to improve economic prospects in South Asia's persistently large informal sector by recognizing that it is not monolithic and tackling major economic distortions, leveraging digital platform technologies, and deploying multi-faceted social protection programs.

Electricity shortages are among the biggest barriers to South Asia's development. Some 255 million people-more than a quarter of the world's off-grid population-live in South Asia, and millions of households and firms that are connected experience frequent and long hours of blackouts. Inefficiencies originating in every link of the electricity supply chain contribute significantly to the power deficit. Three types of distortions lead to most of the inefficiencies: institutional distortions caused by state ownership and weak governance; regulatory distortions resulting from price regulation, subsidies, and cross-subsidies; and social distortions (externalities) causing excessive environmental and health damages from energy use. Using a common analytical framework and covering all stages of power supply, In the Dark identifies and estimates how policy-induced distortions have affected South Asian economies. The book introduces two innovations. First, it goes beyond fiscal costs, evaluating the impact of distortions from a welfare perspective by measuring the impact on consumer wellbeing, producer surplus, and environmental costs. And second, the book adopts a broader definition of the sector that covers the entire power supply chain, including upstream fuel supply and downstream access and reliability. The book finds that the full cost of distortions in the power sector is far greater than previously estimated based on fiscal cost alone: The estimated total economic cost is 4–7 percent of the gross domestic product in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Some of the largest costs are upstream and downstream. Few other reforms could quickly yield the huge economic gains that power sector reform would produce. By expanding access to electricity and improving the quality of supply, power sector reform would also directly benefit poor households. The highest payoffs are likely to come from institutional reforms, expansion of reliable access, and the appropriate pricing of carbon and local air pollution emissions.

The main message of this report is that directed globalization may be a way to address these lingering concerns. Both academic literature and recent anecdotal examples demonstrate the strong causal link between trade and growth.

Countries that have sustained rapid growth over decades have typically had a strong public commitment to expanding education as well as to improving learning outcomes. South Asian countries have made considerable progress in expanding access to primary and secondary schooling, with countries having achieved near-universal enrollment of the primary-school-age cohort (ages 6–11), except for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Secondary enrollment shows an upward trend as well. Beyond school, many more people have access to skilling opportunities and higher education today. Although governments have consistently pursued policies to expand access, a prominent feature of the region has been the role played by nonstate actors-private nonprofit and forprofit entities-in expanding access at every level of education. Though learning levels remain low, countries in the region have shown a strong commitment to improving learning. All countries in South Asia have taken the first step, which is to assess learning outcomes regularly. Since 2010, there has been a rapid increase in the number of large-scale student learning assessments conducted in the region. But to use the findings of these assessments to improve schooling, countries must build their capacity to design assessments and analyze and use findings to inform policy.

Trade has played a critical role in global poverty reduction. In harnessing the potential of trade, some of the most successful countries have developed strong trade relationships with their neighbors. However, many South Asian countries have trade regimes that often offset the positive impact of geography and proximity. This report documents systematically the gaps between current and potential trade in South Asia and addresses important specific barriers that have held trade back. These barriers include tariffs and paratariffs, real and perceived nontariff barriers, connectivity costs, and the broader trust deficit. This policy-focused report unpacks these critical barriers to effective trade integration in South Asia through four in-depth studies that produce new, detailed, on-the-ground knowledge. Three of the studies are based on extensive stakeholder consultations. Two studies also rely on tailored surveys. The fourth study, on tariffs, benefits from new data on paratariffs. The report also marshals new evidence showing how trading regimes in South Asia discriminate against each other. Given the South Asian context, incremental, yet concrete steps aimed at tapping the potential of deeper integration are appropriate. The report has been drafted in this spirit. It offers precise, actionable policy recommendations that could help achieve measurable progress in key areas of trade and integration that would be to the advantage of all countries in the region.

This report explores two understudied factors key to unlocking the economic potential of South Asia: intraregional investment and knowledge connectivity. Creating a unique firm level database, it provides a nuanced understanding of the drivers of outward investment for South Asian firms and provides policy options to enhance intraregional trade.

An oft-cited strategy to advance economic development is to further integrate developing countries into global trade, particularly through global value chains, bolstered by the expansion of female-intensive industries to bring more women into the formal labor force. As a result, a frequent debate centers on whether the apparel industry--the most female-intensive and globally engaged manufacturing industry--can be a key player in this strategy. In recent decades, the apparel industry has shifted production to low-wage developing countries, increasing the demand for women, closing male-female wage gaps, and bringing women into the formal labor force from agriculture and informal work. But is an apparel-led export strategy sufficient to induce a broader transition from jobs women do to survive to careers promising stable employment and a sense of identity? 'From Jobs to Careers' answers this question by focusing on seven countries where apparel plays a vital role in their export baskets--Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Arab Republic of Egypt, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Vietnam. It finds that the apparel industry indeed can serve as a launching pad to bring more women into the labor market. For this approach to work, however, complementary policies must tackle the barriers that hinder women's pursuit of long-term workforce participation and better-paid occupations. Key policy recommendations include increasing the participation of female production workers in export-oriented apparel manufacturing and associated industries, upgrading within manufacturing-related industries, boosting access to education, and breaking glass ceilings. The report also seeks to shift the paradigm of how we think of women in the labor force by stressing the importance of their transition from jobs to careers--the so-called 'quiet revolution.'