Research published in English

The Copernicus Climate Change Service predicts that 2024 will surpass this record, reaching an average temperature of 1.66C. This alarming increase is due to the confluence of climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation and the El Nio phenomenon, which has intensified temperatures in the ocean and atmosphere. The research began with a bibliographic documentary analysis of the dependence on fossil fuels in the most polluting countries. China, the United States, India, Russia, and Japan were found to be 90%, 90%, 100%, 95%, and 90%, respectively, dependent on coal, oil, and natural gas. Subsequently, the rate of deforestation over the past five years was examined, noting that 50 million hectares were deforested in South America, 30 million in Africa, 25 million in Asia and 5 million in North America. When analyzing the global mean temperature change variable, the Shapiro-Wilk test was applied to verify the normality of the data. It was evident that the distribution deviates from normality. Using a year-by-year linear regression forecasting model, the temperature is projected to continue to rise to 2.07C by 2030. This research found that we have exceeded in the last 60 years, by more than five times the capacity of the atmosphere by 200,000 megatons to support CO2. The environmental consequences of this warming will be severe. Winters will have temperatures below zero, while summers will be extremely hot, with wind chills that could exceed 50 C at the beginning of the year, coinciding with the El Nio phenomenon in tropical areas. These conditions will severely affect the health of approximately 350 million people, who will be left without access to safe drinking water, exposed to extreme heat or winter frosts, and rising sea levels. It is crucial to take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect forests and mitigate the effects of climate change. Otherwise, we face a future with serious consequences for human health and the planet.

Climate change is generating an increasingly worrying phenomenon: climate change displacement, the forced or voluntary migration of people who are forced to leave their homes and livelihoods due to the impacts of climate change. This research seeks to analyze this phenomenon on the planet using a timeline, a statistical forecast model, and a Shapiro-Wilk normality test. The Shapiro-Wilk test yielded a positive result for the normality of the data, indicating that the linear regression technique is suitable for analyzing the relationship between the variables. The regression model shows an upward trend in climate change displacement over the next seven years. A significant increase in the number of people who will be forced to leave their homes due to the impacts of climate change is expected. The research results highlight the urgency of taking concrete action to mitigate climate change and reduce its impact on vulnerable communities. It is essential to guarantee access to humanitarian assistance, protection and basic rights for people displaced by climate change.

The world's forests face a serious threat: deforestation. This phenomenon, driven by various human activities, is leading to the irreversible loss of vital ecosystems and generating serious consequences for the planet. This research, based on a linear regression model, has revealed a worrying trend: deforestation will continue to increase until 2030, at an alarming rate. Analysis using the linear regression model has shown a significant correlation between deforestation and various socioeconomic factors, such as population growth, agricultural expansion, and demand for natural resources. These factors are driving forest cover loss at an accelerating rate. The continued increase in deforestation will have dire consequences for the planet. Among the main threats are increased greenhouse gas emissions, loss of biodiversity, soil degradation, socio-economic impacts as it is known, local communities that depend on forests for their livelihoods are seriously affected by deforestation, losing their lands, food sources and natural resources.