Directions in Development - Trade

This is volume 3 of a three-volume publication on Bangladesh's trade prospects. Bangladesh's ambition is to build on its very solid growth and poverty reduction achievements, and accelerate growth to become a middle income country by 2021, and share prosperity more widely amongst its citizens. This includes one of its greatest development challenges: to provide gainful employment to the over 2 million people that will join the labor force each year over the next decade. Moreover, only 54.1 million of its 94 million working age people are employed. Bangladesh needs to use its labor endowment even more intensively to increase growth and, in turn, to absorb the incoming labor. The Diagnostic Trade Integration Study identifies the following actions centered around four pillars to sustain and accelerate export growth: (1) breaking into new markets through a) better trade logistics to reduce delivery lags ; as world markets become more competitive and newer products demand shorter lead times, to generate new sources of competitiveness and thereby enable market diversification; and b) better exploitation of regional trading opportunities in nearby growing and dynamic markets, especially East and South Asia; (2) breaking into new products through a) more neutral and rational trade policy and taxation and bonded warehouse schemes; b) concerted efforts to spur domestic investment and attract foreign direct investment, to contribute to export promotion and diversification, including by easing the energy and land constraints; and c) strategic development and promotion of services trade; (3) improving worker and consumer welfare by a) improving skills and literacy; b) implementing labor and work safety guidelines; and c) making safety nets more effective in dealing with trade shocks; and (4) building a supportive environment, including a) sustaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals; and b) strengthening the institutional capacity for strategic policy making aimed at the objective of international competitiveness to help bring focus and coherence to the government's reform efforts. This third volume provides in-depth analysis of eight different manufacturing and services sectors of the Bangladeshi economy, which help to illustrate the thematic analysis of volume 2 and ground it in sector experiences. Besides pointing to cross-cutting themes, the analysis also highlights some specific issues and actions that could help relieve constraints to faster export growth in these sectors.

This is volume 2 of a three-volume publication on Bangladesh's trade prospects. Bangladesh's ambition is to build on its very solid growth and poverty reduction achievements, and accelerate growth to become a middle income country by 2021, and share prosperity more widely amongst its citizens. This includes one of its greatest development challenges: to provide gainful employment to the over 2 million people that will join the labor force each year over the next decade. Moreover, only 54.1 million of its 94 million working age people are employed. Bangladesh needs to use its labor endowment even more intensively to increase growth and, in turn, to absorb the incoming labor. The Diagnostic Trade Integration Study identifies the following actions centered around four pillars to sustain and accelerate export growth: (1) breaking into new markets through a) better trade logistics to reduce delivery lags ; as world markets become more competitive and newer products demand shorter lead times, to generate new sources of competitiveness and thereby enable market diversification; and b) better exploitation of regional trading opportunities in nearby growing and dynamic markets, especially East and South Asia; (2) breaking into new products through a) more neutral and rational trade policy and taxation and bonded warehouse schemes; b) concerted efforts to spur domestic investment and attract foreign direct investment, to contribute to export promotion and diversification, including by easing the energy and land constraints; and c) strategic development and promotion of services trade; (3) improving worker and consumer welfare by a) improving skills and literacy; b) implementing labor and work safety guidelines; and c) making safety nets more effective in dealing with trade shocks; and (4) building a supportive environment, including a) sustaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals; and b) strengthening the institutional capacity for strategic policy making aimed at the objective of international competitiveness to help bring focus and coherence to the government's reform efforts. This second volume provides in-depth analysis across seven cross-cutting themes that underpin most of the findings of pillars 1 and 2 above.

The world is getting richer, but fragile countries and territories are not. By 2015, most of the poor will live in these economies, most of which have been or still are affected by civil conflicts. Trading Away from Conflict finds evidence of an important factor affecting conflict: trade, and in particular, trade policy. On the one hand, trade brings resources and creates jobs, and in turn, those add to stability. On the other hand, trade itself is also volatile and can increase the value of predating exportable commodities. This book tries to help policy makers in fragile countries to use trade to reduce the risk of conflict. To do so, it lays out a framework for studying the relationship between trade and conflict, reviews previous studies, revisits and expands the cross-country evidence, and analyzes new country case studies. On the basis of the analysis, it offers trade-related policy directions to reduce this risk in fragile economies. The results provide convincing evidence that trade and trade policy have a large impact on the risk and intensity of conflict. In particular, higher minerals and oil exports raise the risk of conflict because there is a high incentive to fight over their control. This is seen in a number of countries-and was the case in Nigeria until the government reached an agreement that directed some resource revenues to militants. The results in the book also show that trade-related increases in real incomes and employment reduce the risk and intensity of conflict. A high volume of trade with neighbors is likely to shorten conflicts and make them less severe. These effects are particularly strong in more ethnically divided and unequal settings, in countries and territories with a recent history of or ongoing conflict, such as the West Bank and Gaza, as well as in those with low levels of accountability and transparency. Trading Away from Conflict will help readers understand part of the dynamics of some current conflicts such as those in Nigeria and the Republic of South Sudan, quantify the effect of various trade shocks on conflict across and within economies, identify some conditions when this effect is larger, and evaluate measures to use trade to increase conflict resilience in fragile settings.

This report's focus is making global value chains (GVCs) more inclusive. To achieve inclusiveness is by overcoming participation constraints for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and facilitation access for Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs). The underlying assumption is that most firms in LIDCs are SMEs. Even larger firms in LIDCs are likely to face similar challenges to SMEs, including a less supportive domestic operating environment and weaker institutions that lead to higher fixed costs and challenges to compete on the international markets. The two major points of this report are (1) participation in GVCs is heterogeneous and uneven, across and within countries, and (2) available data and survey-based evidence suggest that SMEs' participation in GVCs is mostly taking place through indirect contribution to exports, rather than through exporting directly. The report makes the case that policy action, at the national and multilateral level, can make a difference in achieving more inclusive GVCs through: a holistic approach to reform spanning trade, investment, and domestic policies countries and investments in expanding the statistical base and analysis of GVCs and in sharing knowledge on best practices on enabling policies and programs. The report elaborates on three broad areas of recommendations: (1) establishing a trade and investment action plan for inclusiveness defining clear and achievable objectives on trade and investment policy and identifying the necessary complementary domestic policy actions; (2) complementing trade, investment, and domestic policy actions by providing the needed political leadership and support to enhance collaboration across the sectors, and establishing global platforms for sharing best practices; and (3) providing political support for the establishment of a multi-year plan to expand and upgrade the statistical foundation necessary to increase the capacity of all countries to identify and implement policies that can contribute to stronger, more inclusive and sustainable growth and development, globally.

Unlocking Bangladesh's Trade Potential: A Path to Growth and ProsperityBangladesh has a solid record of economic growth and poverty reduction. This study identifies key strategies to accelerate growth and achieve middle-income status by 2021, focusing on trade competitiveness. Discover how Bangladesh can: - Break into new markets through improved trade logistics. - Diversify exports with neutral trade policies and strategic investment. - Enhance worker welfare with skills development and safety measures. - Build a supportive environment with macroeconomic stability and strong institutions. For policymakers, business leaders, and researchers, this report offers insights into Bangladesh's economic future. Authors Sanjay Kathuria and Mariem Mezghenni Malouche provide a roadmap for sustainable, export-led growth.

Based on forecasts of global population growth, food security will remain an important economic development issue over the next several decades. In addition, real food prices have risen in recent years after decades of decline, bringing the issue of food security even further into the public spotlight. However, there is no global food shortage: the problem is one of moving food, often across borders, from surplus production areas to deficit ones at prices that low-income consumers in developing countries can afford. Trade can be an excellent buffer for domestic fluctuations in food supply. World output of a given food commodity is far less variable than output in individual countries so increased trade integration holds considerable potential to stabilize food prices, boost returns to farmers and reduce the prices faced by consumers. Trade liberalization protects national food markets against domestic shocks by allowing more food to be imported in times of shortage and exported in periods of plenty. Historically, however, most countries have chosen to take the opposite approach by restricting imports of food and discouraging exports to keep domestic markets isolated from international shocks. Food commodity markets, therefore, remain highly distorted despite the wave of liberalization that has swept world trade since the 1980s. In addition to examining the determinants of recent food price spikes, Trade Policy and Food Security explores the impact of food prices on economic welfare, and how the effect of price changes on food security and economic welfare in developing countries can be mitigated through appropriate national policies at the border. It highlights the importance of both the extension and continued application of existing WTO disciplines on trade-distorting agricultural trade policies as a key resolution to the collective action problem witnessed during the recent food price spikes, whereby unilateral border policies--especially export controls--simply exacerbated the initial price increases.

Over the past decade, four major developments in global economic integration have shaped trade policy and the economic performance of countries within the Middle East and North Africa region: the emergence of global supply chains, the growth of trade in services, the rise of China and India as major international trading powers, and regional integration. These developments, along with the labor and natural resource endowments of particular countries (some are resource-poor but labor-abundant, some resource-rich and labor-abundant, and some resource-rich and labor-importing), have influenced export diversification outcomes across the region. Yet these countries may not be taking full advantage of all of the opportunities the four new trends offer to them. 'Trade Competitiveness of the Middle East and North Africa: Policies for Export Diversification' examines the region's trade policy agendas and their results by focusing on the countries' response to these four key developments in international trade. As the region recovers from the global financial and economic crises, the book identifies reforms that could allow countries to further strengthen global production networks, benefit more from trade in services, better compete in external markets to face the rise of China and India, and reach the full potential of regional integration. If thoroughly implemented, especially by oil exporters, all of these reforms could help boost growth and job creation in the region.

How do labor market frictions shape the impact of international trade on jobs and wages? This report provides a comprehensive analysis of labor mobility costs and their impact on trade liberalization, focusing on developing countries. It's for policymakers, economists, and international development professionals seeking to understand the complex dynamics between trade and labor markets. Discover how 'sticky feet'-labor market frictions-affect worker decisions, employment reallocation, and wage adjustments. Explore the consequences of trade reforms, including foregone welfare gains and the disproportionate burden on workers. Learn how mobility costs vary across industries, firm types, and worker demographics. - Understand the role of informal employment and the impact of plant closings. - Gain insights into effective policy interventions to mitigate negative short-term consequences and facilitate labor adjustment. This insightful study offers evidence-based strategies to maximize the benefits of trade while supporting worker transitions, leading to more inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

The Modern Silk Route is offering a potential land-bridge between China and Europe through Central Asia and Russia that offers a complement to existing shipping routes, and is attracting growing interest by a selected number of multinational companies. However, the main role of the Silk Route is to support the development and integration of the region. Connectivity to the east and west, over exceptionally long distances, is critical to the development of the Central Asian countries, when trading globally and between themselves. Facilitating trade and transportation across many borders, remains a major challenge more than twenty years since the breakup of the former Soviet Union. The book revisits trade and transport connectivity through the Central Asia countries along the old Silk Route, based on knowledge from project implementation and field research. It takes the modern perspective of supply chain efficiency and logistics performance, which depends not only on infrastructure but also markets and policies. Since the breakup of the Former Soviet Union connectivity of Central Asia is a prominent agenda. The focus has been on physical improvements of specific transport corridors. But logistics performance remains very low, caused by inefficiencies, at national levels, of services and of trade and transport agencies, as well as lack of cross-border integration of trade and transit. The book suggests that the policy focus should not be just on physical trade routes. Rather, it stresses the focus on supply chain reliability, and proposes policy packages and enabling implementation practices, consistent across countries in the region in areas such as transportation, customs and border clearance, trade or transit. It also highlights the complementarity of the current initiatives, including the recent development of the Eurasian Customs Union, or the rising of trade and investment from China.

High levels of trade costs persist in the world trading system, despite recent progress in tariff reduction, trade facilitation, and logistics. At least some of these costs can be attributed to non-tariff measures (NTMs), policies imposed by governments other than ordinary customs duties which have an impact on the price at which exports and imports are traded, the quantities traded, or both. Such costs are particularly worrisome if they have a discriminatory or protectionist effect, or violate countries' international commitments. However, even NTMs designed to carry out domestic regulatory objectives – for example, protection of human, animal or plant health, consumer or workplace safety, or the environment – can have substantial effects on international trade, which should be considered when such policies are developed. This book discusses some of the analytical methods that can be used to accompany the process of policy development for NTMs. It discusses the broad economic rationale for improving the design of NTMs;, illustrates the main forms of quantification of NTMs and their effects, including inventory approaches, price-based approaches, and quantity-based approaches; proposes a new analytical and measurable concept of "regulatory distance" to help guide deep integration efforts at the regional level; provides a discussion of the effects of NTMs on household expenditures, poverty, and firm competitiveness; and shows how empirical analysis of NTMs can be used to inform policy advice. As such, it should provide a valuable addition to the arsenal of tools available for applied analysis of international trade policy.

For Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic–Central America free trade agreement (CAFTA-DR) has been more than a trade agreement. Costa Rica has used trade liberalization and promotion of international trade as a core development strategy for decades. CAFTA-DR consolidated benefits that had previously been unilaterally extended under the Caribbean Basin Initiative into a multilateral free trade agreement, providing a more stable environment for trade relationships. Beyond just being a trade agreement, CAFTA-DR opened up state monopolies in telecommunications and insurance, which polarized the country. No other trade agreement has generated as much controversy about the potential impacts on the economy. Following a referendum, with a small margin in favor of the agreement, Costa Rica was the last member country to ratify CAFTA-DR in 2009. Given the controversy at the time, Costa Rica Five Years after CAFTA-DR: Assessing Early Results takes stock of the early impacts of CAFTA-DR during the five years since its ratification, addressing the following questions: • What actual changes did the agreement bring about, and what was their context? • What was the impact of those changes on trade and foreign direct investment flows? • How have the high-tech, insurance, telecommunications, and pharmaceutical sectors been impacted?

In Zimbabwe, trade has been a driver of economic growth, rising incomes, and progressive empowerment of Zimbabweans through rising standards of living and the promise of better jobs. Since 1980, through good years and bad years, increases in exports have been positively associated with increases in national income. Zimbabwe's location and resource base, together with a low-cost but relatively well educated labor force, have endowed it with a naturally high trade ratio built on a diversified base that facilitates using trade as an engine of growth. While trade volumes have rebounded smartly from the deep recession of 2007-2008, these do not offset other worrisome longer-term trends: • Export growth during the last decade has been lacklustre and failed to drive high growth. • Agricultural exports, other than tobacco, have lost their once dominant role in the region, and are no longer a source of diversification. • Manufacturing has withered in a continuing secular decline. • Zimbabwe's export basket has become less diversified and more dependent on a narrow range of mineral and, to a lesser extent, agricultural products. In short, exports have become less diversified, less-technologically sophisticated, and less labor-intensive - and ever more dependent on a few large mining activities to provide foreign exchange and employment. This report traces the roots of this poor performance to several policy issues: poor predictability of macroeconomic policy and economic governance has created an unfavorable climate for private investment and trade; a tariff structure that dampens export profitability; industrial policies - indigenization policy in particular - that undermine investor confidence and inhibits private investment; and finally, competition-limiting policies toward services that limit connectivity of Zimbabweans and raise trade costs. The good news arising from the study is that the remedies for these policy shortcomings lie in Zimbabwean hands. If the government were to adopt reforms that reconfigure economy-wide incentives and trade and industrial policies, it could promote sustained growth, economic diversification and empowerment of poor people.

Unlock the export potential of the Middle East and North Africa. This insightful analysis reveals why MENA lags in global trade and how to ignite economic growth. Champions Wanted dives deep into firm-level data, exposing the critical weakness: a lack of export powerhouses. Unlike thriving regions, MENA struggles to cultivate companies that can compete on the world stage. Discover how uncompetitive exchange rates, trade barriers, and corruption stifle growth. This book is for economists, policymakers, and anyone seeking to understand and address MENA's economic challenges. Learn how to: - Foster a competitive real exchange rate - Streamline trade and reduce transaction costs - Attract foreign direct investment - Promote effective export strategies Transform MENA's trade landscape and unleash its economic potential.