Why just be contrarian when you can bet against consensus and be right?
Through a meta-analysis of what moves markets and what drives human behavior, New York Times bestselling author and founder of Verdad Advisers, Dan Rasmussen, cuts through the 60/40 portfolio, exposing where empirical evidence shows the best opportunities-and where projections, models, and experts often fail-to create an asset allocation that can withstand the tests of time.
In this exploration of intellectual truths in investing, Dan's research shows that the investor's edge lies in fundamentals over forecasts, humility over hubris, and demonstrated rules over dogma. How to find a winning investing edge in an unpredictable world Daniel Rasmussen is the founder and portfolio manager of Verdad Advisers, a ~$900M hedge fund. Before starting Verdad, Dan worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. He is a member of the investment committee of the Trustees of Donations of the Episcopal Church, is the New York Times bestselling author of American Uprising: The Untold Story of America's Largest Slave Revolt, and in 2017, was named to the Forbes 30 under 30 list. Dan is a contributor to the Wall Street Journal and his investment research has been featured in multiple volumes of The Best Investment Writing. Dan earned an AB from Harvard College summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
"In an ever-changing (and chasing) investing world, it's a rarity to find a non-conformist and independent investing mind like Dan Rasmussen's. He thinks for himself and built his world-class process all on his own. The Humble Investor challenges the received wisdoms of the establishment and educates you on a better way." -Keith R. McCullough, Chief Executive Officer, Hedgeye Risk Management
"The Humble Investor is a refreshing and much-needed departure from most investing books. Serious investors will appreciate its provocative take on the industry's challenges and its empirically-grounded approach to the solutions. An invaluable resource for how to think as well as how to invest." -Michael J. Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management
"This book poses a danger to conventional investment wisdom. It's provocative, even heretical." -Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Chairman Emeritus, O'Shaughnessy Asset Management
"Dan Rasmussen beautifully and clearly summarizes frontier research in finance, but also proposes many new insights for gaining an investment edge. There is a lot to learn from this book about where finance is, as well as where it is going." -Andrei Shleifer, Loeb Professor of Finance, Harvard University
"A new generation of quantitative investors has arrived, and Dan Rasmussen is leading the charge! Anchored in scientific evidence, The Humble Investor provides an exciting new framework for adapting fundamental security selection strategies to different market conditions. Excessive confidence in flawed forecasts, Dan argues, is a root cause of price volatility in security markets. By embracing humility, historical analysis, diversification, and a countercyclical mindset, investors can make more informed decisions, even during market upheavals. This book offers a creative and compelling framework for integrating macro and micro analysis. Rasmussen writes with crystal clarity and his economic arguments are unimpeachable. A delightful read!" -Charles M. C. Lee, Moghadam Family Professor, Emeritus, Stanford Graduate School of Business
