A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes's theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of “The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy.”
At its simplest, Bayes's theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But the truth is, this theorem affects every aspect of our lives, helping to explain everything from why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives to why innocent people are sometimes put in prison. Now, science writer Tom Chivers explores this cornerstone of rational thought for readers of all backgrounds. With an accessible voice and razor-sharp insight, he illustrates how Bayesian principles are used in modelling and forecasting and is the underlying architecture of rationality.
But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did a 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?
Part biography, part eye-opening science treatise, “Everything Is Predictable” is a fun and engaging ride.
