Includes • Introduction to Decision Making • Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets • Group Mechanics • Heuristics and Programmed Decisions • Probability and Base Rate Neglect
Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to make those tough decisions they face by providing them with a toolbox of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make. The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, including: • Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory • Heuristics • Probability and Expected Value • Bayes Theorem • Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods • Game Theory • Prediction Markets • Brainstorming and Groupthink • Black Swan Events.
Each chapter provides clear examples of the decision-making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools.
