Over the years, some very smart people have thought they understood the rules of chance?only to fail dismally. Whether you call it probability, risk, or uncertainty, the workings of chance often defy common sense. Fortunately, advances in math and science have revealed the laws of chance, and understanding those laws can help in your everyday life.
In Chancing It, award-winning scientist and writer Robert Matthews shows how to understand the laws of probability and use them to your advantage. He gives you access to some of the most potent intellectual tools ever developed and explains how to use them to guide your judgments and decisions. By the end of the book, you will know:
How to understand and even predict coincidences When an insurance policy is worth having Why "expert" predictions are often misleading How to tell when a scientific claim is a breakthrough or baloney When it makes sense to place a bet on anything from sports to stock markets
A groundbreaking introduction to the power of probability, Chancing It will sharpen your decision-making and maximize your luck.
"Robert Matthews's engaging book shows the critical importance of understanding the basic ideas of probability and statistics for life in the modern world. He ranges over counterintuitive properties of chance, through evidence which is there if only we open our eyes to see it, to how to make-and lose-a fortune, all in a clear and accessible way."
David J. Hand, author of The Improbability Principle
"With a witty, welcoming spirit of Darrell Huff's 1954 bestseller How to Lie with Statistics, Robert Matthews has written one of those rare informative statistics books for everyone. In this era's slippery claims of facts and fallacies, Chancing It is fresh enlightenment on how to judge the random winds of possibility with well-informed skepticism of belief."
Joseph Mazur, author of Fluke: The Math and Myth of Coincidence
"Chancing It is filled with surprising insights about the nature of randomness and the randomness of nature, as well as the likelihood of human nature to be misled when it comes to the topic of uncertainty. Written for non-specialists with clarity and humor, it offers sound advice about the uses and abuses of big data and statistics. The chances are good that you will find valuable information her
Arthur Benjamin, author of The Magic of Math and Secrets of Mental Math
